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OPLIN 4cast #476: Internet growth will shift

Posted in 4cast

mobile Wi-FiThe annual Cisco Visual Networking Index was released last week. We have blogged here about the VNI in the past – in fact, this is the fourth time – because for many years this assessment of Internet usage trends has allowed us to pretty accurately predict the increase in Ohio public library bandwidth usage for the next year – always about 30%. That may no longer be the case. The VNI predicts only an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in wired Internet bandwidth from PCs and other fixed devices over the next five years. On the other hand, it predicts a 68% CAGR in Wi-Fi traffic from mobile devices. How is your library’s Wi-Fi?

  • Phones will drive Internet traffic past the zettabyte mark this year (Re/Code | Arik Hesseldahl)  “Cisco reckons that 5.5 billion people — about 70 percent of the world’s population — will have a mobile device by 2020. And between now and then, global mobile traffic will grow at twice the rate of the world’s population growth. That means that data generated by mobile devices — phones, tablets, watches and the like — will grow eightfold in that time. By 2020, Cisco predicts the number of people with a mobile phone will exceed those who have electrical service, running water and a car.”
  • By 2020, mobile will be more common than electricity (VatorNews | Ronny Kerr)  “To put it in perspective, Cisco says that, by 2020, more people will have mobile phones (5.4 billion) than electricity (5.3 billion), running water (3.5 billion) and cars (2.8 billion). Cisco developed the Cisco VNI Forecast to make predictions about future Web trends both for its own needs as well as those of its customers. The company uses the phrase ‘visual networking’ to encompass large swaths of Web trends, from video to social networking to collaboration technologies.”
  • Cisco forecasts mobile data deluge (Wall Street Journal, Digits | Don Clark)  “Even at that volume, mobile will account for only 15% of total data traffic by 2020–up from 5% in 2015–but is growing at a faster rate than the overall Internet, the company said. Cisco sees multiple drivers for the mobile data growth. Topping the list is video–both the number of videos being generated by smartphones, and the rising demand for higher-quality images that translate into more bytes of data.”
  • Why and how to use videos on your website (CWS blog| Ethan Herber)  “74% of all Internet traffic in 2017 will be video. That’s pretty impressive. But is the video craze just a passing fad or is it here to stay? Today, the general audience would much rather watch a video than read an article. With a quick and easy click of the play button, they receive a much better visual experience in a shorter amount of time.”

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