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OPLIN 4cast #390: In the year 2018

Posted in 4cast

question markCompanies and organizations that make predictions about the future often seem to focus on a five-year span. So in 2013, those organizations were developing their forecasts for 2018. It takes a few months, then, for those predictions to get published and disseminated in the media. Now that we’re a few months past 2013, we’ve seen a number of articles lately based on those predictions, telling us how things will be in 2018. Here are four of those articles, which may be of interest to library tech folks.

  • E-books to outsell print by 2018 says new report (BBC News)  “Tim Waterstone told the Oxford Literary Festival in March that ‘every indication – certainly from America – shows the [e-book] share is already in decline. The indications are that it will do exactly the same in the UK.’ But Phil Stokes, an entertainment and media partner at PwC [Pricewaterhouse Coopers], said: ‘This growth is being driven by the internet and by consumers’ love of new technology, particularly mobile technology.’”
  • After 2018, your PC won’t be the main way we get online (Huffington Post | Timothy Stenovec)  “Last year, PCs accounted for 86.4 percent of all Internet traffic. By 2018, the PC share of Internet traffic will drop to just 50.5 percent, according to Cisco. Compare that to smartphones and tablets, which last year accounted for a measly 5 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, of global Internet traffic. In 2018, smartphones will jump to 21 percent of traffic, while tablets will account for 18 percent, according to Cisco.”
  • Cat videos, binge TV watching will account for 84 percent of Internet traffic, Cisco says (Re/code | Amy Schatz)  “In the U.S., Internet traffic is expected to surge from 15 exabytes per month last year to 37 exabytes monthly in 2018. … Internet video is expected to account for about 84 percent of all U.S. Internet traffic in four years, up from its current 78 percent, Cisco says. That figure also includes IP VOD, which is basically pay-TV providers’ on-demand video services.”
  • Reminder: Nobody has a clue how many wearable devices will sell in 2018 (Time | Harry McCracken)  “Although I usually try to steer clear of making tech predictions myself, I am willing to make a bold one about the wearable market in 2018. I hereby declare that whatever it looks like then, the chances are zero that anybody will exclaim, ‘Gee, this was all so utterly predictable back in 2014.’”

Articles from Ohio Web Library: